随着跌势持续，澳元兑加元汇率向0.98024支撑位回落
AUD/CAD continues its week-long drift lower, trading near 0.98116 with the 4H trend still pointed down and price sitting below all three EMAs; we sell rallies while 0.98461 caps.
Trading analyst covering macro, equities, and digital assets. Focused on systematic risk frameworks and disciplined entries.
核心要點
- No macro catalyst has emerged to interrupt the week-long AUD/CAD downtrend.
- Price trades below all three EMAs, with the 4H trend still pointing lower.
- 0.98461 EMA20 is the invalidation line; a close above it suspends the bearish thesis.
澳元兑加元（AUD/CAD）正以一种平静而从容的方式缓慢走低，趋势跟踪交易员们已经学会不再忽视这一走势。
该货币对本周已下跌逾1%，周三的交易时段内，价格波动维持在0.98023至0.98273的区间内。 此次走势并未受到任何重大消息的驱动；相反，它反映出加元面对已失去短期买盘支撑的澳元时展现出的稳健韧性。该货币对今日迄今下跌，正逼近近期波动区间的下沿。
结构性走势进一步强化了看跌倾向。 价格位于20日均线（0.98461）、50日均线（0.98658）和200日均线（0.98689）下方，且均线群本身呈压缩状态，这预示着价格将持续横盘整理，而非出现急剧反转。 各时间周期的趋势方向不一，但4小时图仍指向下行，而该时间周期是此交易布局的主导周期。 RSI指标正逼近超卖区域但尚未完全进入，且波动率保持平稳，这与缓慢下跌而非抛售潮的走势相符。此前走势显示0.98666已被向下突破，目前正作为上方阻力位，近期支撑位位于0.98024。
我们倾向于做空，并在反弹至0.98273至0.98461区间时卖出。若日线收盘价高于0.98461的20日EMA，则该判断失效，表明市场正试图筑底。
本内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议、推荐或买卖任何金融产品的要约。交易存在重大风险。过往表现不代表未来结果。
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading carries significant risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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