随着跌势延续，澳元兑加元汇率滑向0.97705
AUD/CAD continues its week-long descent, trading below all three key EMAs with 1H and 4H trends both pointing lower; we sell rallies into 0.98026 while 0.97705 is the next downside target.
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核心要點
- Bear trend is aligned on 1H and 4H with no macro catalyst needed to extend it.
- AUD/CAD has shed over 1.2% on the week, pressing toward the 0.97705 support shelf.
- Daily close above 0.98026 invalidates the bearish setup and forces reassessment.
澳元兑加元正坚定地持续走低，目前市场走势中尚无迹象表明将出现反转。
该货币对过去一周已下跌逾1.2%，目前交投于0.97766至0.980855的日波动区间底部附近。 0.97963的支撑位——该水平在前一交易日曾短暂守住——随后已被突破，使得0.97705的支撑区域成为下一个关键买盘位。此次走势并无新的宏观催化因素驱动，纯属趋势延续。
从动量角度看，走势结构清晰。价格远低于20日均线（0.98355）、50日均线（0.98620）和200日均线（0.98517），这些均线目前形成多重阻力，证实卖方主导了该区间。 1小时和4小时趋势均指向下行，尽管日线仍呈中性，导致整体趋势方向混杂。RSI已深陷超卖区域，这一点值得关注：在趋势跟随策略中，下跌趋势中的超卖通常预示动能增强而非动能枯竭，我们倾向于采纳这一解读。 波动率处于正常水平，日内波动可控。
我们将在0.97963至0.98026的阻力区间内逢高做空。48小时目标位为0.97705，次要目标位为0.97498。 若日线收盘价高于0.98026，则该交易失效，并表明此次回调正在消化卖压。
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