EUR/USD 淡出EMA20阻力，下跌趨勢在1.1550守穩
EUR/USD remains capped below EMA20 at 1.15496 with the 4H and daily trends both pointing lower; we sell rallies into 1.15496–1.15541 while 1.15753 contains the upside.
Trading analyst covering macro, equities, and digital assets. Focused on systematic risk frameworks and disciplined entries.
核心要点
- No macro catalyst has disturbed the established downtrend; bear flow remains in control.
- Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50, with 4H and daily trend both aligned lower.
- 1.15753 is hard invalidation; a close above it unwires the bearish thesis.
EUR/USD 持續在EMA20下方磨盤，在沒有新觸發因素沖洗賣家的情況下，持續收復看起來越來越不可能。
該對在本節交易中上漲邊際0.10%，交易範圍在1.15257至1.15562之間——足夠緊湊以確認目前處於平靜波動體制。時間窗口內沒有重大新聞；該走勢純粹是由成交量驅動，先前的看跌偏見仍然完整，過去一週內已有多個關鍵水位向下方突破。
結構支持繼續下行。價格被夾在EMA20 1.15496和EMA50 1.15753之下，EMA200在1.16564遠在頭頂作為遠距結構供應。4小時和日線趨勢都指向下跌，雖然1小時已轉向中性，但這讀作盤整而非反轉。RSI處於中性且未過度延伸，為走勢發展留有空間。波動平靜，這適合向下磨盤而非急速延伸。1.15541至1.15753之間的阻力群組界定清晰，先前的支持位1.15272已翻轉為頭頂摩擦。動能仍在賣家一方。
我們傾向看空，在任何盤中反彈時在1.15496–1.15541區域賣出。4小時收在EMA50上方1.15753是沙線；超過那裡，交易結束。
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