EUR/USD presses 1.1500 support as full downtrend holds

EUR/USD is grinding against the 1.15003 floor with no macro catalyst to interrupt the trend, and the path of least resistance remains lower.

The pair trades at 1.1510 bid, marginally positive on the session but capped well beneath a day-high of 1.15264, with the session low of 1.15003 marking the immediate line in the sand. There is no headline catalyst driving the move; this is pure trend continuation, with the prior week's sequence of broken levels leaving a string of unchallenged resistance overhead.

The setup is clean for a trend-following desk. Price sits well beneath EMA20 at 1.15709 and EMA50 at 1.15765, with EMA200 at 1.16357 a distant ceiling. The full EMA stack is inverted and declining, confirming distribution. Trend is aligned down across the 1H, 4H and daily timeframes, and RSI is drifting toward oversold territory without yet triggering a meaningful mean-reversion signal. Volatility is calm, which means the move is measured and sustainable rather than exhausted. The prior context reinforces the bias: every level broken over the past week has held as new resistance on retest, and the 1.15541 resistance has not been reclaimed.

We sell rallies into the 1.15541–1.15709 zone where broken support and the EMA cluster now cap. A daily close below 1.15003 opens further downside; a close above 1.15765 invalidates the thesis and forces reassessment.