EUR/USD grinds toward 1.16596 as short-term momentum holds

EUR/USD is grinding toward first meaningful resistance at 1.16596 after a week defined by systematically broken supply levels, and the question now is whether intraday momentum can drag the daily trend into alignment.

The pair has added roughly 0.69% over the past week, trading a tight 1.160655 to 1.16167 range on the session. That weekly gain arrived without a clear news catalyst — this is a momentum and flow story, with positioning doing the work across the short-term timeframes.

The setup favours continued grind higher. Price sits above EMA20 at 1.15896 and EMA50 at 1.15827, with the short-tenor trend stack aligned upward on the 1H and 4H. Trend alignment across all timeframes remains mixed — the daily is still pointing down, capping conviction — but RSI is neutral and there is room before momentum becomes stretched. Volatility is calm, supporting a deliberate rather than aggressive advance. EMA200 at 1.16410 represents near-term overhead supply to navigate before the pair can test resistance at 1.16596 and, beyond that, 1.16852. Prior support levels including 1.16045 should provide a cushion on any shallow pullback.

We lean long and look for dips into 1.15827–1.15896 as the entry zone. A daily close below EMA50 at 1.15827 invalidates the call and returns the pair to a neutral posture.